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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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