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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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