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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year ...
Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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