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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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