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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year ...
Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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