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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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