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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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