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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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