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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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