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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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