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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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