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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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