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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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