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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
BUMA PRODUCED 11.4 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 4Q 2020, 5% LOWER COMPARED TO 12.2 MILLION TONNES IN 4Q 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. presents its newsletter with consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owne ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
PAKISTAN IS PLANNING TO END COAL IMPORTS, WORSENING OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH AFRICAN COAL - IEEFA
The growing and irreversible risks being faced by South African coal exporters
As Thungela Resources’ CEO attempts to talk up ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
G7 COAL FINANCE EXIT AND WHY IT MATTERS FOR INDIA - IEEFA
While India doesn’t rely on export credit finance to fund new coal plants, there are material implications
The commitment by the Group o ...
Saturday, 29 May 21
SKULD’S IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP EXPERIENCE
More than a year has passed since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandate for the 0.50% sulphur cap for marine fuel (MARPOL Annex VI) ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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