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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Saturday, 05 June 21
IT'S TIME FOR THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO CHAMPION RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE PHILIPPINES, NOT NUCLEAR OR FOSSIL GAS - IEEFA
Fossil gas and nuclear investments risk locking in costly, outdated infrastructure for the long-term
The United States has spent the ...
Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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