We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent retreat from almost 11-year highs is raising the question whether a counter seasonal market drop is in the cards during the 2H of the year in the context of a broader market upcycle.
While the market is multi-factorial with fundamentals, sentiment and inter-freight correlation amongst sizes feeding one another, the current Cape market correction was exacerbated after Chinese authorities intervened to curb iron ore price speculation. A subsequent sharp reversal of iron ore and steel prices from record highs and FFAs selling off contributed to pulling the Cape market lower, while the smaller segments were unaffected. It is well known that Capesize is characterized by the highest freight volatility and even though that we expect volatility to keep up, we are not convinced that this is the turning point for a prolonged market correction. Fundamentals are likely to outlast volatility and we cannot exclude that the next leg higher will find a much higher peak over the next two quarters with cargo export seasonality emerging stronger across all commodities and particularly iron ore.
Iron Ore exports to accelerate in 2H2021; the urge for higher quality iron ore is likely to intensify: China’s iron ore inventories have been destocked by more than 8.0 million tons over the past month amid elevated demand and major iron ore miners running behind their export guidance, likely to trigger a new restocking wave. Forward iron ore prices on the curve, even if spot iron ore prices softened from here, incentivize iron ore miners to accelerate exports during the 2H2021.
So far, China’s emissions regulations on steel production were unsuccessful in containing it. Record high steel mills margins incentivized higher steel production ex. strictly regulated Tangshan with YTD Jan-Apr crude steel production up +15.6% y-o-y. If steel production controls intensify during the second half, this will further increase demand for high quality iron ore, in order to optimize the steel process. In addition, the scrap scramble from steel mills outside China could put a lid on China’s increasing scrap usage in the steel mix in the short term.
Macro indicators continue to be bullish for dry bulk demand in the next quarters: China’s Property new starts - a leading indicator of steel demand – have increased +19.0% YTD in 2021, while April’s y-o-y growth slowed down at +9.3% y-o-y. Any slow down in the growth of new floor space under construction will not immediately translate into lower steel and iron ore demand; developers are likely to accelerate property completions from now on continuing to drive demand.
Other than China, global steel production and demand conditions are robust, reflected by record high steel prices both in the US and Europe. Spot and forward steel prices have surged, giving steel mills the opportunity to hedge at profitable levels, therefore global steel production will continue to expand.
Global manufacturing PMIs are at 10 year cycle highs, despite having softened during April and lead demand for commodities. Oil prices have been lagging the rise in other commodities and are projected to increase significantly over the next two quarters, which could provide further support to the dry bulk market via - and not limited to - the bunker-$ per ton freight- speed relation. Fundamentals of other dry bulk commodities are also robust, with electricity generation set to accelerate over the summer in addition to increased industrial production, while China’s domestic coal production is underperforming amid mine safety checks.
Early signs of credit tightening: Following a record high stimulus over the previous year, latest credit growth figures in China indicate a slow-down in credit supply during April, however as long as inflation at the producers level accelerates the tightening impact is muted in our view. China’s potential deleveraging from here should not be expected to have a negative effect on dry bulk commodities demand, until credit tightening starts to interfere with producers’ profit margins.
Last but not least, China’s political tension with Australia is more likely to translate into higher ton-miles in the medium term, with Atlantic production of high-quality iron ore and coal substituting for any potential loss of Australia’s market share. In the longer term, China’s 14th year plan that calls for an increase of electric arc furnaces (scrap) in steel production to 15-20% by 2025 and self sufficiency share of iron ore above 45% will certainly have an impact in the way iron ore is procured with China having higher control over both supply and iron ore prices.
by Tamara Apostolou,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
|
|
|
Showing 626 to 630 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
