We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent retreat from almost 11-year highs is raising the question whether a counter seasonal market drop is in the cards during the 2H of the year in the context of a broader market upcycle.
While the market is multi-factorial with fundamentals, sentiment and inter-freight correlation amongst sizes feeding one another, the current Cape market correction was exacerbated after Chinese authorities intervened to curb iron ore price speculation. A subsequent sharp reversal of iron ore and steel prices from record highs and FFAs selling off contributed to pulling the Cape market lower, while the smaller segments were unaffected. It is well known that Capesize is characterized by the highest freight volatility and even though that we expect volatility to keep up, we are not convinced that this is the turning point for a prolonged market correction. Fundamentals are likely to outlast volatility and we cannot exclude that the next leg higher will find a much higher peak over the next two quarters with cargo export seasonality emerging stronger across all commodities and particularly iron ore.
Iron Ore exports to accelerate in 2H2021; the urge for higher quality iron ore is likely to intensify: China’s iron ore inventories have been destocked by more than 8.0 million tons over the past month amid elevated demand and major iron ore miners running behind their export guidance, likely to trigger a new restocking wave. Forward iron ore prices on the curve, even if spot iron ore prices softened from here, incentivize iron ore miners to accelerate exports during the 2H2021.
So far, China’s emissions regulations on steel production were unsuccessful in containing it. Record high steel mills margins incentivized higher steel production ex. strictly regulated Tangshan with YTD Jan-Apr crude steel production up +15.6% y-o-y. If steel production controls intensify during the second half, this will further increase demand for high quality iron ore, in order to optimize the steel process. In addition, the scrap scramble from steel mills outside China could put a lid on China’s increasing scrap usage in the steel mix in the short term.
Macro indicators continue to be bullish for dry bulk demand in the next quarters: China’s Property new starts - a leading indicator of steel demand – have increased +19.0% YTD in 2021, while April’s y-o-y growth slowed down at +9.3% y-o-y. Any slow down in the growth of new floor space under construction will not immediately translate into lower steel and iron ore demand; developers are likely to accelerate property completions from now on continuing to drive demand.
Other than China, global steel production and demand conditions are robust, reflected by record high steel prices both in the US and Europe. Spot and forward steel prices have surged, giving steel mills the opportunity to hedge at profitable levels, therefore global steel production will continue to expand.
Global manufacturing PMIs are at 10 year cycle highs, despite having softened during April and lead demand for commodities. Oil prices have been lagging the rise in other commodities and are projected to increase significantly over the next two quarters, which could provide further support to the dry bulk market via - and not limited to - the bunker-$ per ton freight- speed relation. Fundamentals of other dry bulk commodities are also robust, with electricity generation set to accelerate over the summer in addition to increased industrial production, while China’s domestic coal production is underperforming amid mine safety checks.
Early signs of credit tightening: Following a record high stimulus over the previous year, latest credit growth figures in China indicate a slow-down in credit supply during April, however as long as inflation at the producers level accelerates the tightening impact is muted in our view. China’s potential deleveraging from here should not be expected to have a negative effect on dry bulk commodities demand, until credit tightening starts to interfere with producers’ profit margins.
Last but not least, China’s political tension with Australia is more likely to translate into higher ton-miles in the medium term, with Atlantic production of high-quality iron ore and coal substituting for any potential loss of Australia’s market share. In the longer term, China’s 14th year plan that calls for an increase of electric arc furnaces (scrap) in steel production to 15-20% by 2025 and self sufficiency share of iron ore above 45% will certainly have an impact in the way iron ore is procured with China having higher control over both supply and iron ore prices.
by Tamara Apostolou,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
|
|
|
Showing 616 to 620 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
