We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent retreat from almost 11-year highs is raising the question whether a counter seasonal market drop is in the cards during the 2H of the year in the context of a broader market upcycle.
While the market is multi-factorial with fundamentals, sentiment and inter-freight correlation amongst sizes feeding one another, the current Cape market correction was exacerbated after Chinese authorities intervened to curb iron ore price speculation. A subsequent sharp reversal of iron ore and steel prices from record highs and FFAs selling off contributed to pulling the Cape market lower, while the smaller segments were unaffected. It is well known that Capesize is characterized by the highest freight volatility and even though that we expect volatility to keep up, we are not convinced that this is the turning point for a prolonged market correction. Fundamentals are likely to outlast volatility and we cannot exclude that the next leg higher will find a much higher peak over the next two quarters with cargo export seasonality emerging stronger across all commodities and particularly iron ore.
Iron Ore exports to accelerate in 2H2021; the urge for higher quality iron ore is likely to intensify: China’s iron ore inventories have been destocked by more than 8.0 million tons over the past month amid elevated demand and major iron ore miners running behind their export guidance, likely to trigger a new restocking wave. Forward iron ore prices on the curve, even if spot iron ore prices softened from here, incentivize iron ore miners to accelerate exports during the 2H2021.
So far, China’s emissions regulations on steel production were unsuccessful in containing it. Record high steel mills margins incentivized higher steel production ex. strictly regulated Tangshan with YTD Jan-Apr crude steel production up +15.6% y-o-y. If steel production controls intensify during the second half, this will further increase demand for high quality iron ore, in order to optimize the steel process. In addition, the scrap scramble from steel mills outside China could put a lid on China’s increasing scrap usage in the steel mix in the short term.
Macro indicators continue to be bullish for dry bulk demand in the next quarters: China’s Property new starts - a leading indicator of steel demand – have increased +19.0% YTD in 2021, while April’s y-o-y growth slowed down at +9.3% y-o-y. Any slow down in the growth of new floor space under construction will not immediately translate into lower steel and iron ore demand; developers are likely to accelerate property completions from now on continuing to drive demand.
Other than China, global steel production and demand conditions are robust, reflected by record high steel prices both in the US and Europe. Spot and forward steel prices have surged, giving steel mills the opportunity to hedge at profitable levels, therefore global steel production will continue to expand.
Global manufacturing PMIs are at 10 year cycle highs, despite having softened during April and lead demand for commodities. Oil prices have been lagging the rise in other commodities and are projected to increase significantly over the next two quarters, which could provide further support to the dry bulk market via - and not limited to - the bunker-$ per ton freight- speed relation. Fundamentals of other dry bulk commodities are also robust, with electricity generation set to accelerate over the summer in addition to increased industrial production, while China’s domestic coal production is underperforming amid mine safety checks.
Early signs of credit tightening: Following a record high stimulus over the previous year, latest credit growth figures in China indicate a slow-down in credit supply during April, however as long as inflation at the producers level accelerates the tightening impact is muted in our view. China’s potential deleveraging from here should not be expected to have a negative effect on dry bulk commodities demand, until credit tightening starts to interfere with producers’ profit margins.
Last but not least, China’s political tension with Australia is more likely to translate into higher ton-miles in the medium term, with Atlantic production of high-quality iron ore and coal substituting for any potential loss of Australia’s market share. In the longer term, China’s 14th year plan that calls for an increase of electric arc furnaces (scrap) in steel production to 15-20% by 2025 and self sufficiency share of iron ore above 45% will certainly have an impact in the way iron ore is procured with China having higher control over both supply and iron ore prices.
by Tamara Apostolou,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
|
|
|
Showing 616 to 620 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
|
| |
| |
|
