We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent retreat from almost 11-year highs is raising the question whether a counter seasonal market drop is in the cards during the 2H of the year in the context of a broader market upcycle.
While the market is multi-factorial with fundamentals, sentiment and inter-freight correlation amongst sizes feeding one another, the current Cape market correction was exacerbated after Chinese authorities intervened to curb iron ore price speculation. A subsequent sharp reversal of iron ore and steel prices from record highs and FFAs selling off contributed to pulling the Cape market lower, while the smaller segments were unaffected. It is well known that Capesize is characterized by the highest freight volatility and even though that we expect volatility to keep up, we are not convinced that this is the turning point for a prolonged market correction. Fundamentals are likely to outlast volatility and we cannot exclude that the next leg higher will find a much higher peak over the next two quarters with cargo export seasonality emerging stronger across all commodities and particularly iron ore.
Iron Ore exports to accelerate in 2H2021; the urge for higher quality iron ore is likely to intensify: China’s iron ore inventories have been destocked by more than 8.0 million tons over the past month amid elevated demand and major iron ore miners running behind their export guidance, likely to trigger a new restocking wave. Forward iron ore prices on the curve, even if spot iron ore prices softened from here, incentivize iron ore miners to accelerate exports during the 2H2021.
So far, China’s emissions regulations on steel production were unsuccessful in containing it. Record high steel mills margins incentivized higher steel production ex. strictly regulated Tangshan with YTD Jan-Apr crude steel production up +15.6% y-o-y. If steel production controls intensify during the second half, this will further increase demand for high quality iron ore, in order to optimize the steel process. In addition, the scrap scramble from steel mills outside China could put a lid on China’s increasing scrap usage in the steel mix in the short term.
Macro indicators continue to be bullish for dry bulk demand in the next quarters: China’s Property new starts - a leading indicator of steel demand – have increased +19.0% YTD in 2021, while April’s y-o-y growth slowed down at +9.3% y-o-y. Any slow down in the growth of new floor space under construction will not immediately translate into lower steel and iron ore demand; developers are likely to accelerate property completions from now on continuing to drive demand.
Other than China, global steel production and demand conditions are robust, reflected by record high steel prices both in the US and Europe. Spot and forward steel prices have surged, giving steel mills the opportunity to hedge at profitable levels, therefore global steel production will continue to expand.
Global manufacturing PMIs are at 10 year cycle highs, despite having softened during April and lead demand for commodities. Oil prices have been lagging the rise in other commodities and are projected to increase significantly over the next two quarters, which could provide further support to the dry bulk market via - and not limited to - the bunker-$ per ton freight- speed relation. Fundamentals of other dry bulk commodities are also robust, with electricity generation set to accelerate over the summer in addition to increased industrial production, while China’s domestic coal production is underperforming amid mine safety checks.
Early signs of credit tightening: Following a record high stimulus over the previous year, latest credit growth figures in China indicate a slow-down in credit supply during April, however as long as inflation at the producers level accelerates the tightening impact is muted in our view. China’s potential deleveraging from here should not be expected to have a negative effect on dry bulk commodities demand, until credit tightening starts to interfere with producers’ profit margins.
Last but not least, China’s political tension with Australia is more likely to translate into higher ton-miles in the medium term, with Atlantic production of high-quality iron ore and coal substituting for any potential loss of Australia’s market share. In the longer term, China’s 14th year plan that calls for an increase of electric arc furnaces (scrap) in steel production to 15-20% by 2025 and self sufficiency share of iron ore above 45% will certainly have an impact in the way iron ore is procured with China having higher control over both supply and iron ore prices.
by Tamara Apostolou,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
|
|
|
Showing 586 to 590 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
|
| |
| |
|
