We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent retreat from almost 11-year highs is raising the question whether a counter seasonal market drop is in the cards during the 2H of the year in the context of a broader market upcycle.
While the market is multi-factorial with fundamentals, sentiment and inter-freight correlation amongst sizes feeding one another, the current Cape market correction was exacerbated after Chinese authorities intervened to curb iron ore price speculation. A subsequent sharp reversal of iron ore and steel prices from record highs and FFAs selling off contributed to pulling the Cape market lower, while the smaller segments were unaffected. It is well known that Capesize is characterized by the highest freight volatility and even though that we expect volatility to keep up, we are not convinced that this is the turning point for a prolonged market correction. Fundamentals are likely to outlast volatility and we cannot exclude that the next leg higher will find a much higher peak over the next two quarters with cargo export seasonality emerging stronger across all commodities and particularly iron ore.
Iron Ore exports to accelerate in 2H2021; the urge for higher quality iron ore is likely to intensify: China’s iron ore inventories have been destocked by more than 8.0 million tons over the past month amid elevated demand and major iron ore miners running behind their export guidance, likely to trigger a new restocking wave. Forward iron ore prices on the curve, even if spot iron ore prices softened from here, incentivize iron ore miners to accelerate exports during the 2H2021.
So far, China’s emissions regulations on steel production were unsuccessful in containing it. Record high steel mills margins incentivized higher steel production ex. strictly regulated Tangshan with YTD Jan-Apr crude steel production up +15.6% y-o-y. If steel production controls intensify during the second half, this will further increase demand for high quality iron ore, in order to optimize the steel process. In addition, the scrap scramble from steel mills outside China could put a lid on China’s increasing scrap usage in the steel mix in the short term.
Macro indicators continue to be bullish for dry bulk demand in the next quarters: China’s Property new starts - a leading indicator of steel demand – have increased +19.0% YTD in 2021, while April’s y-o-y growth slowed down at +9.3% y-o-y. Any slow down in the growth of new floor space under construction will not immediately translate into lower steel and iron ore demand; developers are likely to accelerate property completions from now on continuing to drive demand.
Other than China, global steel production and demand conditions are robust, reflected by record high steel prices both in the US and Europe. Spot and forward steel prices have surged, giving steel mills the opportunity to hedge at profitable levels, therefore global steel production will continue to expand.
Global manufacturing PMIs are at 10 year cycle highs, despite having softened during April and lead demand for commodities. Oil prices have been lagging the rise in other commodities and are projected to increase significantly over the next two quarters, which could provide further support to the dry bulk market via - and not limited to - the bunker-$ per ton freight- speed relation. Fundamentals of other dry bulk commodities are also robust, with electricity generation set to accelerate over the summer in addition to increased industrial production, while China’s domestic coal production is underperforming amid mine safety checks.
Early signs of credit tightening: Following a record high stimulus over the previous year, latest credit growth figures in China indicate a slow-down in credit supply during April, however as long as inflation at the producers level accelerates the tightening impact is muted in our view. China’s potential deleveraging from here should not be expected to have a negative effect on dry bulk commodities demand, until credit tightening starts to interfere with producers’ profit margins.
Last but not least, China’s political tension with Australia is more likely to translate into higher ton-miles in the medium term, with Atlantic production of high-quality iron ore and coal substituting for any potential loss of Australia’s market share. In the longer term, China’s 14th year plan that calls for an increase of electric arc furnaces (scrap) in steel production to 15-20% by 2025 and self sufficiency share of iron ore above 45% will certainly have an impact in the way iron ore is procured with China having higher control over both supply and iron ore prices.
by Tamara Apostolou,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 12 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker S&P is finally back!
For an extended period, Dry bulk & Wet market rates have been diverging, with the SnP deals on each sect ...
Monday, 10 May 21
PAKISTAN: COAL GASIFICATION AND LIQUEFACTION HARMFUL TO ECONOMY - IEEFA
There is no second life for coal
Pakistan’s intention to use coal for power production through gasification and liquefaction technologie ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
HERE'S WHY INVESTORS ARE POURING MONEY INTO COAL, DESPITE ITS BLEAK FUTURE - FORBES
Coal stocks have surged this year – along with the wider energy sector – but experts warn these are likely short-term gains for an indu ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
MAYBANK TO STOP COAL FINANCING - BERNAMA
Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) will stop financing new coal activities as part of its sustainable agenda.
Currently, coal financing m ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
|
|
|
Showing 581 to 585 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
|
| |
| |
|
