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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electricity generators and retailers. This is despite recent agreements to continue operating an aluminium smelter that accounts for around 10% of the State of Victoria's energy demand.
Lower demand due to mild weather and 3,700MW of new renewable generation capacity starting up resulted in average wholesale spot electricity prices falling by 23%-58% in 2020. Fitch expects pricing pressure to persist through to 2022, as more renewable generation comes online, and demand remains subdued. Prices may partially recover in 2023 as the planned closure of AGL's 2,000MW Liddell Coal power plant will remove some generation capacity from the market and as weather conditions normalise.
The lower prices are likely to reduce the earnings of power producers and retailers. Origin Energy Ltd (BBB/Stable) cut its guidance for Energy Markets division EBITDA for the financial year ended 30 June 2021 (FY21) to AUD1.00 billion-1.14 billion (FY20: AUD1.46 billion. AGL Energy Ltd also announced AUD2.7 billion of charges, reflecting onerous contracts primarily related to high-cost wind farm offtake agreements, as well as AUD532 million of impairments to the value of its generation fleet and natural gas assets.
Fitch expects Origin's Energy Markets earnings to fall further in FY22 as the decline in wholesale prices leads to lower retail prices. The Australian Energy Regulator's (AER) draft Default Market Offer (DMO) for the year to 1 July 2021 included price reductions of between 4.6% and 7.9% for residential customers, and 4.1% and 8.5% for small business customers. The regulated DMO acts as a maximum cap that electricity retailers can charge customers, and Fitch expects further reductions in non-regulated market offers, as retailers pass on lower wholesale prices to customers to win or maintain market share.
Fitch expects lower earnings from Origin's Energy Markets division to reduce the headroom available in its rating. Origin typically generates around 16TWh of energy annually from its Eraring coal-fired plant, but the recent price decreases have seen Origin reduce Earring's output due to its relatively high cost compared to market prices. The completion of the 530MW Stockyard Hill wind farm by the end of 2021 should increase Origin's access to lower-cost generation, although this is unlikely to be sufficient to fully offset the fall in retail prices.
Origin's rating incorporates the benefits of cash distributions from its investment in APLNG, which operates a gas liquefaction project. Origin has guided cash receipts of between AUD575 million and AUD675 million in FY21, and Fitch expects receipts to rise in FY22 as oil prices recover. These increased receipts will help partially offset lower energy markets earnings, but larger-than-expected declines in earnings from this segment or lower-than-forecast receipts from APLNG could place pressure on Origin's rating.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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