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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electricity generators and retailers. This is despite recent agreements to continue operating an aluminium smelter that accounts for around 10% of the State of Victoria's energy demand.
Lower demand due to mild weather and 3,700MW of new renewable generation capacity starting up resulted in average wholesale spot electricity prices falling by 23%-58% in 2020. Fitch expects pricing pressure to persist through to 2022, as more renewable generation comes online, and demand remains subdued. Prices may partially recover in 2023 as the planned closure of AGL's 2,000MW Liddell Coal power plant will remove some generation capacity from the market and as weather conditions normalise.
The lower prices are likely to reduce the earnings of power producers and retailers. Origin Energy Ltd (BBB/Stable) cut its guidance for Energy Markets division EBITDA for the financial year ended 30 June 2021 (FY21) to AUD1.00 billion-1.14 billion (FY20: AUD1.46 billion. AGL Energy Ltd also announced AUD2.7 billion of charges, reflecting onerous contracts primarily related to high-cost wind farm offtake agreements, as well as AUD532 million of impairments to the value of its generation fleet and natural gas assets.
Fitch expects Origin's Energy Markets earnings to fall further in FY22 as the decline in wholesale prices leads to lower retail prices. The Australian Energy Regulator's (AER) draft Default Market Offer (DMO) for the year to 1 July 2021 included price reductions of between 4.6% and 7.9% for residential customers, and 4.1% and 8.5% for small business customers. The regulated DMO acts as a maximum cap that electricity retailers can charge customers, and Fitch expects further reductions in non-regulated market offers, as retailers pass on lower wholesale prices to customers to win or maintain market share.
Fitch expects lower earnings from Origin's Energy Markets division to reduce the headroom available in its rating. Origin typically generates around 16TWh of energy annually from its Eraring coal-fired plant, but the recent price decreases have seen Origin reduce Earring's output due to its relatively high cost compared to market prices. The completion of the 530MW Stockyard Hill wind farm by the end of 2021 should increase Origin's access to lower-cost generation, although this is unlikely to be sufficient to fully offset the fall in retail prices.
Origin's rating incorporates the benefits of cash distributions from its investment in APLNG, which operates a gas liquefaction project. Origin has guided cash receipts of between AUD575 million and AUD675 million in FY21, and Fitch expects receipts to rise in FY22 as oil prices recover. These increased receipts will help partially offset lower energy markets earnings, but larger-than-expected declines in earnings from this segment or lower-than-forecast receipts from APLNG could place pressure on Origin's rating.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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