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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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