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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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