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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
BUMA PRODUCED 11.4 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 4Q 2020, 5% LOWER COMPARED TO 12.2 MILLION TONNES IN 4Q 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. presents its newsletter with consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owne ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
PAKISTAN IS PLANNING TO END COAL IMPORTS, WORSENING OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH AFRICAN COAL - IEEFA
The growing and irreversible risks being faced by South African coal exporters
As Thungela Resources’ CEO attempts to talk up ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
G7 COAL FINANCE EXIT AND WHY IT MATTERS FOR INDIA - IEEFA
While India doesn’t rely on export credit finance to fund new coal plants, there are material implications
The commitment by the Group o ...
Saturday, 29 May 21
SKULD’S IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP EXPERIENCE
More than a year has passed since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandate for the 0.50% sulphur cap for marine fuel (MARPOL Annex VI) ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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