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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 05 June 21
IT'S TIME FOR THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO CHAMPION RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE PHILIPPINES, NOT NUCLEAR OR FOSSIL GAS - IEEFA
Fossil gas and nuclear investments risk locking in costly, outdated infrastructure for the long-term
The United States has spent the ...
Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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