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Saturday, 31 October 09
PRODUCERS BENEFIT FROM COAL'S TIGHT SUPPLY AND STRONG DEMAND
 The Jakarta Post reported that, The outlook for Indonesian coal producers appears promising with strong volume growth coming from both the domestic and export markets.
Despite the delayed completion of the 10,000 megawatts (MW) coal-fired steam power plant (PLTU) program, we expect to see additional electricity capacity starting in the fourth quarter of 2009. PLTU Labuan (2x300 MW) was scheduled to operate its first unit in September 2009 and the second unit by December 2009.
PLTU Rembang (2x315 MW) and Indramayu (2x330 MW) should start to operate by January 2010. As nine out of 10 projects in Java-Bali are now in their construction stages, there should be a total add-on capacity of 6,830 MW by the end of 2010. Six PLTU projects (total capacity162 MW) outside the Java-Bali region have already started the construction stage in the fourth quarter of this year with an additional 5 to follow suit.
The Government of Indonesia has finally approved the coal volume required for the domestic market obligation (DMO) at 75 million tons per year starting from 2010, 10.3 percent higher year-on-year from 68 million tons of domestic consumption estimated for 2009.
The volume set for the DMO would amount to 30 percent of the 2010 total estimate for coal production at 250 million tons or up 8.7 percent year-on-year from the 2009 estimate of 230 million tons (chart 1). PLN itself has signed 20-year coal supply contracts, effective once the PLTUs are operational, amounting to 30m tons per year of low-rank coal.
We foresee that the implementation of the DMO has limited the flexibility for coal producers to aggressively penetrate the export market. On top of that, the government has recently revealed its intention to apply a restriction on export quotas at 150 million tons per year starting from 2010.
The regulations would also require each coal producer to allocate 25 percent of their total coal production for the domestic market, or to face penalties in the form of restrictions on their exports.
We see, however, that this last regulation might not be necessary due to the anticipated increase in the volume of coal production going forward, exceeding the domestic demand requirements.
On a more positive note, the government seems willing to accommodate Indonesian coal producers' wishes for minor interventions in regulating the sales price for coal under the DMO provisions. The sales price will be with reference to the international market price to avoid high spreads between export and domestic pricing.
Based on the Newcastle Index, the year-to-date coal price has averaged US$70.7 per ton. Despite a downward trend since the fourth quarter of 2008, coal prices have been relatively steady throughout 2009.
We believe that the price of coal has found its new equilibrium at current levels, supported by stronger demand for higher energy needs mostly in the South East Asian region. Hence, we now expect the coal price to average US$75/t in 2010.
Government also plans to cut the royalty tax rate (DPHB) on low calorific value coal. The proposed DPHB rate is 9 percent for coal with CV<5,000kcal/kg (vis-*-vis 13.5 percent previously) and 7.5 percent for CV<4,500kcal/kg.
We see that upon implementation, lower royalty rates will mean incentives towards growth expectations in the sector.
Stronger domestic demand starting from 2010 paired with recovery of global demand will provide higher volume support for demand for both thermal and coking coal. In our view India will provide the highest growth in thermal coal demand, boosting imports by about 18% to 40m tons beginning this year, in line with the government's plan to double coal-fired electricity generation capacity by 2017.
Indonesia has also made preparations to start the 10,000 MW program phase II which is scheduled to start in 2012 and to operate by 2014.
We estimate coal-fired power plants will take around 48 percent from the total portion of 9,963 MW. Furthermore, coal supply may not grow at the same pace as demand due to export restrictions set on major coal exporters, such as Vietnam and China to secure their domestic needs.
Supported by the fact that the China government has decided to reduce its export quota by 50 percent from 40 million tons to 20 million tons.
As one of the world's major coal exporters, Indonesia will certainly have the upper hand in the tightening supply of coal.
Source:The Jakarta Post
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Sunday, 04 October 09
GOVT THREATENS TO CANCEL COAL BLOCK ALLOTTED TO BINANI CEMENT
Economic Times reported that, The government has threatened to cancel a coal block allocated for captive use to Binani Cement saying the company see ...
Saturday, 03 October 09
SHORT PERIOD RATES FOR SUPRAMAX WAS AROUND US$ 17,000 PER DAY FOR VESSELS OPENING FAR EAST / SE ASIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com (Singapore): The BDI firmed up this week by almost 8 pct to 2,357 points , the main reason being jump in Cape size index by almost 22 p ...
Friday, 02 October 09
C&O SEES INDONESIA COAL PURCHASES UP 20 PCT IN 2010
Reuters reported that, Dubai-based coal trader Coal & Oil (C&0) expects its coal purchases from Indonesia to increase by at least 20 percent ...
Thursday, 01 October 09
MJUNCTION LAUNCHES INDIA'S FIRST COAL SPOT PRICE INDEX
• Named 'MJcomposite, MJsteel, MJcement, MJpower' the value weighted index will benefit Indian coal buyers by minimising risk against pr ...
Wednesday, 30 September 09
INDIA CEMENTS SET TO PRODUCE POWER; EYES COAL MINE IN INDONESIA
Financial Express reported that, Tamil Nadu-based India Cements Ltd (ICL) has firmed up plans to produce power to meet its current and future requir ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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