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Saturday, 31 October 09
PRODUCERS BENEFIT FROM COAL'S TIGHT SUPPLY AND STRONG DEMAND
 The Jakarta Post reported that, The outlook for Indonesian coal producers appears promising with strong volume growth coming from both the domestic and export markets.
Despite the delayed completion of the 10,000 megawatts (MW) coal-fired steam power plant (PLTU) program, we expect to see additional electricity capacity starting in the fourth quarter of 2009. PLTU Labuan (2x300 MW) was scheduled to operate its first unit in September 2009 and the second unit by December 2009.
PLTU Rembang (2x315 MW) and Indramayu (2x330 MW) should start to operate by January 2010. As nine out of 10 projects in Java-Bali are now in their construction stages, there should be a total add-on capacity of 6,830 MW by the end of 2010. Six PLTU projects (total capacity162 MW) outside the Java-Bali region have already started the construction stage in the fourth quarter of this year with an additional 5 to follow suit.
The Government of Indonesia has finally approved the coal volume required for the domestic market obligation (DMO) at 75 million tons per year starting from 2010, 10.3 percent higher year-on-year from 68 million tons of domestic consumption estimated for 2009.
The volume set for the DMO would amount to 30 percent of the 2010 total estimate for coal production at 250 million tons or up 8.7 percent year-on-year from the 2009 estimate of 230 million tons (chart 1). PLN itself has signed 20-year coal supply contracts, effective once the PLTUs are operational, amounting to 30m tons per year of low-rank coal.
We foresee that the implementation of the DMO has limited the flexibility for coal producers to aggressively penetrate the export market. On top of that, the government has recently revealed its intention to apply a restriction on export quotas at 150 million tons per year starting from 2010.
The regulations would also require each coal producer to allocate 25 percent of their total coal production for the domestic market, or to face penalties in the form of restrictions on their exports.
We see, however, that this last regulation might not be necessary due to the anticipated increase in the volume of coal production going forward, exceeding the domestic demand requirements.
On a more positive note, the government seems willing to accommodate Indonesian coal producers' wishes for minor interventions in regulating the sales price for coal under the DMO provisions. The sales price will be with reference to the international market price to avoid high spreads between export and domestic pricing.
Based on the Newcastle Index, the year-to-date coal price has averaged US$70.7 per ton. Despite a downward trend since the fourth quarter of 2008, coal prices have been relatively steady throughout 2009.
We believe that the price of coal has found its new equilibrium at current levels, supported by stronger demand for higher energy needs mostly in the South East Asian region. Hence, we now expect the coal price to average US$75/t in 2010.
Government also plans to cut the royalty tax rate (DPHB) on low calorific value coal. The proposed DPHB rate is 9 percent for coal with CV<5,000kcal/kg (vis-*-vis 13.5 percent previously) and 7.5 percent for CV<4,500kcal/kg.
We see that upon implementation, lower royalty rates will mean incentives towards growth expectations in the sector.
Stronger domestic demand starting from 2010 paired with recovery of global demand will provide higher volume support for demand for both thermal and coking coal. In our view India will provide the highest growth in thermal coal demand, boosting imports by about 18% to 40m tons beginning this year, in line with the government's plan to double coal-fired electricity generation capacity by 2017.
Indonesia has also made preparations to start the 10,000 MW program phase II which is scheduled to start in 2012 and to operate by 2014.
We estimate coal-fired power plants will take around 48 percent from the total portion of 9,963 MW. Furthermore, coal supply may not grow at the same pace as demand due to export restrictions set on major coal exporters, such as Vietnam and China to secure their domestic needs.
Supported by the fact that the China government has decided to reduce its export quota by 50 percent from 40 million tons to 20 million tons.
As one of the world's major coal exporters, Indonesia will certainly have the upper hand in the tightening supply of coal.
Source:The Jakarta Post
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Wednesday, 07 October 09
COAL INDIA, SHIPPING CORP MAY FORM VENTURE TO IMPORT COAL
The venture may be on the lines of the firm that CIL plans with SAIL for coal imports in which both to hold 25%
Live Mint reported that, State-ru ...
Tuesday, 06 October 09
ASIA COAL-PRICE REBOUND TOWARDS $71 ON TENDER ACTIVITY
Reuters reported that, Prices of power-station coal in Australia, a benchmark for Asia, rose 4 percent in the latest week to near $71 a tonne, bolst ...
Tuesday, 06 October 09
BHARATHI CEMENT TO ADD 2.5 MT CAPACITY BY 2010
Business-Standard reported that, Bharathi Cement Corporation (BCC) commenced its commercial operations from its Nallalingayapalli manufacturing plan ...
Tuesday, 06 October 09
MOZAMBIQUE TO BUILD COAL RAILWAY
BBC reported that, Mozambique's government has announced that it has secured $500m (£313m) to build a new railway line. The transport ministe ...
Tuesday, 06 October 09
COAL INDIA AIMS TO BUY MINE ABROAD BY MARCH
*Coal India to issue its first coal import tender by Nov
*ArcelorMittal, 9 others in race to develop abandoned mines
*52 firms keen to partner coa ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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