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Saturday, 31 October 09
PRODUCERS BENEFIT FROM COAL'S TIGHT SUPPLY AND STRONG DEMAND
 The Jakarta Post reported that, The outlook for Indonesian coal producers appears promising with strong volume growth coming from both the domestic and export markets.
Despite the delayed completion of the 10,000 megawatts (MW) coal-fired steam power plant (PLTU) program, we expect to see additional electricity capacity starting in the fourth quarter of 2009. PLTU Labuan (2x300 MW) was scheduled to operate its first unit in September 2009 and the second unit by December 2009.
PLTU Rembang (2x315 MW) and Indramayu (2x330 MW) should start to operate by January 2010. As nine out of 10 projects in Java-Bali are now in their construction stages, there should be a total add-on capacity of 6,830 MW by the end of 2010. Six PLTU projects (total capacity162 MW) outside the Java-Bali region have already started the construction stage in the fourth quarter of this year with an additional 5 to follow suit.
The Government of Indonesia has finally approved the coal volume required for the domestic market obligation (DMO) at 75 million tons per year starting from 2010, 10.3 percent higher year-on-year from 68 million tons of domestic consumption estimated for 2009.
The volume set for the DMO would amount to 30 percent of the 2010 total estimate for coal production at 250 million tons or up 8.7 percent year-on-year from the 2009 estimate of 230 million tons (chart 1). PLN itself has signed 20-year coal supply contracts, effective once the PLTUs are operational, amounting to 30m tons per year of low-rank coal.
We foresee that the implementation of the DMO has limited the flexibility for coal producers to aggressively penetrate the export market. On top of that, the government has recently revealed its intention to apply a restriction on export quotas at 150 million tons per year starting from 2010.
The regulations would also require each coal producer to allocate 25 percent of their total coal production for the domestic market, or to face penalties in the form of restrictions on their exports.
We see, however, that this last regulation might not be necessary due to the anticipated increase in the volume of coal production going forward, exceeding the domestic demand requirements.
On a more positive note, the government seems willing to accommodate Indonesian coal producers' wishes for minor interventions in regulating the sales price for coal under the DMO provisions. The sales price will be with reference to the international market price to avoid high spreads between export and domestic pricing.
Based on the Newcastle Index, the year-to-date coal price has averaged US$70.7 per ton. Despite a downward trend since the fourth quarter of 2008, coal prices have been relatively steady throughout 2009.
We believe that the price of coal has found its new equilibrium at current levels, supported by stronger demand for higher energy needs mostly in the South East Asian region. Hence, we now expect the coal price to average US$75/t in 2010.
Government also plans to cut the royalty tax rate (DPHB) on low calorific value coal. The proposed DPHB rate is 9 percent for coal with CV<5,000kcal/kg (vis-*-vis 13.5 percent previously) and 7.5 percent for CV<4,500kcal/kg.
We see that upon implementation, lower royalty rates will mean incentives towards growth expectations in the sector.
Stronger domestic demand starting from 2010 paired with recovery of global demand will provide higher volume support for demand for both thermal and coking coal. In our view India will provide the highest growth in thermal coal demand, boosting imports by about 18% to 40m tons beginning this year, in line with the government's plan to double coal-fired electricity generation capacity by 2017.
Indonesia has also made preparations to start the 10,000 MW program phase II which is scheduled to start in 2012 and to operate by 2014.
We estimate coal-fired power plants will take around 48 percent from the total portion of 9,963 MW. Furthermore, coal supply may not grow at the same pace as demand due to export restrictions set on major coal exporters, such as Vietnam and China to secure their domestic needs.
Supported by the fact that the China government has decided to reduce its export quota by 50 percent from 40 million tons to 20 million tons.
As one of the world's major coal exporters, Indonesia will certainly have the upper hand in the tightening supply of coal.
Source:The Jakarta Post
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Thursday, 29 October 09
PTC INDIA UNIT CHASES 2.5 MTPA INDONESIAN COAL
Reuters reported that, PTC Energy is in talks with an Indonesian firm to source 2.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) coal for its 350-400 MW power to ...
Thursday, 29 October 09
CHINA MAY SEEK THERMAL COAL ELSEWHERE IF AUSTRALIAN EXPORT COSTS RISE, SAYS REPORT
The Australian reported that, CHINA is likely to turn to alternative markets for thermal coal if the cost and availability of Australia's exports a ...
Thursday, 29 October 09
CURRENCIES, ASIA DEMAND TO LIFT EUROPE COAL PRICE
Supportive currency movements and strong Asian demand mean the price of coal delivered into Europe is poised to rise more than 30 percent to above $ ...
Wednesday, 28 October 09
AUSTRALIAN POWER STATION COAL PRICE TOPPED USD 73 A TONNE
Reuters reported that prices of power station coal in Australia, a benchmark for Asia, crept up for the fourth week and topped USD 73 a tonne, as a ...
Wednesday, 28 October 09
MIDDLE EAST COAL EYEING INDIAN POWER PLANTS IN EXCHANGE FOR LONG TERM COAL SUPPLY
Reuters reported that UAE's Middle East Coal is in talks to buy equity stakes in India's power plants in exchange for long term coal supply.
ME ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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