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Saturday, 31 October 09
PRODUCERS BENEFIT FROM COAL'S TIGHT SUPPLY AND STRONG DEMAND
 The Jakarta Post reported that, The outlook for Indonesian coal producers appears promising with strong volume growth coming from both the domestic and export markets.
Despite the delayed completion of the 10,000 megawatts (MW) coal-fired steam power plant (PLTU) program, we expect to see additional electricity capacity starting in the fourth quarter of 2009. PLTU Labuan (2x300 MW) was scheduled to operate its first unit in September 2009 and the second unit by December 2009.
PLTU Rembang (2x315 MW) and Indramayu (2x330 MW) should start to operate by January 2010. As nine out of 10 projects in Java-Bali are now in their construction stages, there should be a total add-on capacity of 6,830 MW by the end of 2010. Six PLTU projects (total capacity162 MW) outside the Java-Bali region have already started the construction stage in the fourth quarter of this year with an additional 5 to follow suit.
The Government of Indonesia has finally approved the coal volume required for the domestic market obligation (DMO) at 75 million tons per year starting from 2010, 10.3 percent higher year-on-year from 68 million tons of domestic consumption estimated for 2009.
The volume set for the DMO would amount to 30 percent of the 2010 total estimate for coal production at 250 million tons or up 8.7 percent year-on-year from the 2009 estimate of 230 million tons (chart 1). PLN itself has signed 20-year coal supply contracts, effective once the PLTUs are operational, amounting to 30m tons per year of low-rank coal.
We foresee that the implementation of the DMO has limited the flexibility for coal producers to aggressively penetrate the export market. On top of that, the government has recently revealed its intention to apply a restriction on export quotas at 150 million tons per year starting from 2010.
The regulations would also require each coal producer to allocate 25 percent of their total coal production for the domestic market, or to face penalties in the form of restrictions on their exports.
We see, however, that this last regulation might not be necessary due to the anticipated increase in the volume of coal production going forward, exceeding the domestic demand requirements.
On a more positive note, the government seems willing to accommodate Indonesian coal producers' wishes for minor interventions in regulating the sales price for coal under the DMO provisions. The sales price will be with reference to the international market price to avoid high spreads between export and domestic pricing.
Based on the Newcastle Index, the year-to-date coal price has averaged US$70.7 per ton. Despite a downward trend since the fourth quarter of 2008, coal prices have been relatively steady throughout 2009.
We believe that the price of coal has found its new equilibrium at current levels, supported by stronger demand for higher energy needs mostly in the South East Asian region. Hence, we now expect the coal price to average US$75/t in 2010.
Government also plans to cut the royalty tax rate (DPHB) on low calorific value coal. The proposed DPHB rate is 9 percent for coal with CV<5,000kcal/kg (vis-*-vis 13.5 percent previously) and 7.5 percent for CV<4,500kcal/kg.
We see that upon implementation, lower royalty rates will mean incentives towards growth expectations in the sector.
Stronger domestic demand starting from 2010 paired with recovery of global demand will provide higher volume support for demand for both thermal and coking coal. In our view India will provide the highest growth in thermal coal demand, boosting imports by about 18% to 40m tons beginning this year, in line with the government's plan to double coal-fired electricity generation capacity by 2017.
Indonesia has also made preparations to start the 10,000 MW program phase II which is scheduled to start in 2012 and to operate by 2014.
We estimate coal-fired power plants will take around 48 percent from the total portion of 9,963 MW. Furthermore, coal supply may not grow at the same pace as demand due to export restrictions set on major coal exporters, such as Vietnam and China to secure their domestic needs.
Supported by the fact that the China government has decided to reduce its export quota by 50 percent from 40 million tons to 20 million tons.
As one of the world's major coal exporters, Indonesia will certainly have the upper hand in the tightening supply of coal.
Source:The Jakarta Post
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Thursday, 29 October 09
COAL OF AFRICA SEES VELE OUTPUT BY APRIL 2010
* First coal from Mooiplaats mined and sold
* Talks with Transnet on rail PPP on track
Reuters reported that, Coal of Africa (CoAL) said on Mond ...
Thursday, 29 October 09
UAE FUND EYES INDIA POWER FOR INDONESIAN COAL
Reuters reported that, the UAE's Middle East Coal (MEC) is in talks to buy equity stakes in India's power plants in exchange for long-term coal su ...
Thursday, 29 October 09
CESC POSTS RS 126 CRORE (US$ 26,655,178) NET PROFIT IN QUARTER TWO
Economic Times reported that, Energy major CESC posted a marginal increase in net profit at Rs 126 crore (US$ 26,655,178) for the quarter ended Sep ...
Thursday, 29 October 09
INDIA MMTC TENDER SET TO BOOST S.AFRICA COAL
The South African coal market is set to be boosted further by India's state-owned trading firm MMTC Ltd's tender for 12.5 million tonnes, Indian t ...
Thursday, 29 October 09
INDIA CEMENTS SET TO ACQUIRE COAL MINE IN INDONESIA
Business-Standard reported that, India Cements is set to acquire a coal mine in Indonesia for around $20 million (around Rs 100 crore). The company ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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