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Saturday, 31 October 09
PRODUCERS BENEFIT FROM COAL'S TIGHT SUPPLY AND STRONG DEMAND
 The Jakarta Post reported that, The outlook for Indonesian coal producers appears promising with strong volume growth coming from both the domestic and export markets.
Despite the delayed completion of the 10,000 megawatts (MW) coal-fired steam power plant (PLTU) program, we expect to see additional electricity capacity starting in the fourth quarter of 2009. PLTU Labuan (2x300 MW) was scheduled to operate its first unit in September 2009 and the second unit by December 2009.
PLTU Rembang (2x315 MW) and Indramayu (2x330 MW) should start to operate by January 2010. As nine out of 10 projects in Java-Bali are now in their construction stages, there should be a total add-on capacity of 6,830 MW by the end of 2010. Six PLTU projects (total capacity162 MW) outside the Java-Bali region have already started the construction stage in the fourth quarter of this year with an additional 5 to follow suit.
The Government of Indonesia has finally approved the coal volume required for the domestic market obligation (DMO) at 75 million tons per year starting from 2010, 10.3 percent higher year-on-year from 68 million tons of domestic consumption estimated for 2009.
The volume set for the DMO would amount to 30 percent of the 2010 total estimate for coal production at 250 million tons or up 8.7 percent year-on-year from the 2009 estimate of 230 million tons (chart 1). PLN itself has signed 20-year coal supply contracts, effective once the PLTUs are operational, amounting to 30m tons per year of low-rank coal.
We foresee that the implementation of the DMO has limited the flexibility for coal producers to aggressively penetrate the export market. On top of that, the government has recently revealed its intention to apply a restriction on export quotas at 150 million tons per year starting from 2010.
The regulations would also require each coal producer to allocate 25 percent of their total coal production for the domestic market, or to face penalties in the form of restrictions on their exports.
We see, however, that this last regulation might not be necessary due to the anticipated increase in the volume of coal production going forward, exceeding the domestic demand requirements.
On a more positive note, the government seems willing to accommodate Indonesian coal producers' wishes for minor interventions in regulating the sales price for coal under the DMO provisions. The sales price will be with reference to the international market price to avoid high spreads between export and domestic pricing.
Based on the Newcastle Index, the year-to-date coal price has averaged US$70.7 per ton. Despite a downward trend since the fourth quarter of 2008, coal prices have been relatively steady throughout 2009.
We believe that the price of coal has found its new equilibrium at current levels, supported by stronger demand for higher energy needs mostly in the South East Asian region. Hence, we now expect the coal price to average US$75/t in 2010.
Government also plans to cut the royalty tax rate (DPHB) on low calorific value coal. The proposed DPHB rate is 9 percent for coal with CV<5,000kcal/kg (vis-*-vis 13.5 percent previously) and 7.5 percent for CV<4,500kcal/kg.
We see that upon implementation, lower royalty rates will mean incentives towards growth expectations in the sector.
Stronger domestic demand starting from 2010 paired with recovery of global demand will provide higher volume support for demand for both thermal and coking coal. In our view India will provide the highest growth in thermal coal demand, boosting imports by about 18% to 40m tons beginning this year, in line with the government's plan to double coal-fired electricity generation capacity by 2017.
Indonesia has also made preparations to start the 10,000 MW program phase II which is scheduled to start in 2012 and to operate by 2014.
We estimate coal-fired power plants will take around 48 percent from the total portion of 9,963 MW. Furthermore, coal supply may not grow at the same pace as demand due to export restrictions set on major coal exporters, such as Vietnam and China to secure their domestic needs.
Supported by the fact that the China government has decided to reduce its export quota by 50 percent from 40 million tons to 20 million tons.
As one of the world's major coal exporters, Indonesia will certainly have the upper hand in the tightening supply of coal.
Source:The Jakarta Post
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Monday, 23 November 09
INDONESIA MINING RULE THREATENS INVESTMENT DRIVE
A new Indonesian mining rule, limiting contract work that can be outsourced and favouring local players, is shaping up as a new blow to plans ...
Sunday, 22 November 09
SHORT PERIOD RATES FOR SUPRAMAX WAS AT US$ 25,000/26,000 PER DAY FOR VESSELS OPENING FAR EAST / SE ASIA - VISTAAR ANALYSIS
COALspot.com (Singapore): Analyised by Capt. Radhakrishnan Reddy, Managing Director of Vistaar Shipping Services, Singapore.
BDI hits a new high ...
Friday, 20 November 09
INDONESIA UNITED TRACTORS PLANS $430 MLN CAPEX IN 2010
Reuters reported that, Indonesian heavy equipment distributor and mining contractor PT United Tractors Tbk plans capital expenditure of $430 million ...
Friday, 20 November 09
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS HOPE RALLY WILL LAST
Boon times are still on the daily agenda of every dry bulk ship owner these days after one of the toughest year in the industry’s century-old ...
Friday, 20 November 09
NTPC LOOKING FOR LONG TERM CONTRACTS FOR COAL IMPORT
Business Standard of India reported that, State run power firm NTPC today said it is looking for long-term supply of coal from overseas market to me ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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