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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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