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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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