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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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