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Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal price has been reinvigorated, with Morgan Stanley noting a recent rally generated by an increase in spot buying from Chinese end-users.
The thermal price, having been around US$50/t since early May, has risen to US$55.50/t. Still, the broker assesses developments in China are somewhat confusing.
Customs authorities in Shanghai are contemplating a ban on coal discharging in the final months of the year while some in southern China have secured additional clearance quotas. China is aiming to limit coal imports but domestic production is also constrained because of the clampdown on illegal output.
This has generally tightened the market. Power generation from coal for key importers such as India, Japan and South Korea is returning to normal, although high inventory could limit the level of winter stockpiling in the broker’s view.
Meanwhile, Glencore is curtailing supply in Australia and in June, Morgan Stanley points out, almost half seaborne coal exporters were loss-making, although this has reduced to around 15% at the spot price. Hence, a lapse in supply discipline and a quick return of curtailed capacity could put the recent recovery at risk.
On the metallurgical (coking) coal front, Australia’s hard coking coal price has risen to US$139/t, also sustained by Chinese buying and a recovery in steel production. India’s steel production is almost back to normal, Morgan Stanley observes, although coal imports have not kept up with output.
The broker believes a floor is settling under both coal pricing systems but favours metallurgical over thermal coal as there is a more robust recovery in demand, less inventory around, and potential for seasonal supply disruptions ahead.
Short-Term
So, what about the weather? The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has assessed a La Niña event now prevails in the Pacific Ocean. This signals higher rainfall on the eastern seaboard over the next few months.
As the number of tropical cyclones is also likely to increase, this brings the focus of risk to the largely metallurgical coal basins of Queensland. Credit Suisse assesses a risk of price spikes for coal in the event of supply disruptions and insufficient inventory, given improving demand.
While Australian coal producers are better equipped to deal with severe weather these days, having invested in mitigation, the extent and location of events are difficult to predict adequately.
The Bowen Basin coalfields are the most exposed to severe rain events from tropical cyclones, Credit Suisse notes, while further west base metals operations could be hampered by disruptions to Queensland rail networks. Hence, steel mills and coal traders are likely to be watching the weather closely, to ensure they are ready in terms of sourcing required volumes of metallurgical coal.
Source: FNArena
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Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
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