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Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal price has been reinvigorated, with Morgan Stanley noting a recent rally generated by an increase in spot buying from Chinese end-users.
The thermal price, having been around US$50/t since early May, has risen to US$55.50/t. Still, the broker assesses developments in China are somewhat confusing.
Customs authorities in Shanghai are contemplating a ban on coal discharging in the final months of the year while some in southern China have secured additional clearance quotas. China is aiming to limit coal imports but domestic production is also constrained because of the clampdown on illegal output.
This has generally tightened the market. Power generation from coal for key importers such as India, Japan and South Korea is returning to normal, although high inventory could limit the level of winter stockpiling in the broker’s view.
Meanwhile, Glencore is curtailing supply in Australia and in June, Morgan Stanley points out, almost half seaborne coal exporters were loss-making, although this has reduced to around 15% at the spot price. Hence, a lapse in supply discipline and a quick return of curtailed capacity could put the recent recovery at risk.
On the metallurgical (coking) coal front, Australia’s hard coking coal price has risen to US$139/t, also sustained by Chinese buying and a recovery in steel production. India’s steel production is almost back to normal, Morgan Stanley observes, although coal imports have not kept up with output.
The broker believes a floor is settling under both coal pricing systems but favours metallurgical over thermal coal as there is a more robust recovery in demand, less inventory around, and potential for seasonal supply disruptions ahead.
Short-Term
So, what about the weather? The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has assessed a La Niña event now prevails in the Pacific Ocean. This signals higher rainfall on the eastern seaboard over the next few months.
As the number of tropical cyclones is also likely to increase, this brings the focus of risk to the largely metallurgical coal basins of Queensland. Credit Suisse assesses a risk of price spikes for coal in the event of supply disruptions and insufficient inventory, given improving demand.
While Australian coal producers are better equipped to deal with severe weather these days, having invested in mitigation, the extent and location of events are difficult to predict adequately.
The Bowen Basin coalfields are the most exposed to severe rain events from tropical cyclones, Credit Suisse notes, while further west base metals operations could be hampered by disruptions to Queensland rail networks. Hence, steel mills and coal traders are likely to be watching the weather closely, to ensure they are ready in terms of sourcing required volumes of metallurgical coal.
Source: FNArena
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Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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