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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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