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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 September 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE DIVES FURTHER IN SEPTEMBER DUE TO SUBDUED DEMAND & GLOBAL OVERSUPPLY
Subdued demand & global oversupply pushed down this month's HBA
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
WHY INDIA CAN'T MATCH THE GULF REGION'S RECORD-LOW SOLAR TARIFFS - IEEFA
5-10% annual decline in tariffs estimated for the next decade
A number of countries in the Gulf region have set record-low prices for solar in ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long ...
Monday, 31 August 20
DEFECTIVE PASSAGE PLANNING: UNSEAWORTHINESS OR A NAVIGATIONAL DECISION? THE CMA CGM LIBRA QUESTION SAILS ON TO THE UK SUPREME COURT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The UK Supreme Court has granted leave to appeal the recent decision in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG ( ...
Sunday, 30 August 20
PANAMAX - THIS WEEK THE DEMAND HAS PICKED UP, BUT THE TONNAGE LIST IS INCREASING DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
More or less flat from previous week, with cape rates moving from US$ 19,500 to 18,900 on average. West Australia however being more ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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