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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 05 September 20
INDIA WON'T KICK ITS COAL HABIT SO EASILY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
India has traditionally considered itself lucky to have been endowed with abundant coal reserves, which it has sought to use to meet its energy nee ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
FINANCING COMPLETE FOR 900MW FIFTH PHASE OF MASSIVE DUBAI SOLAR PARK: ARABIAN BUSINESS
Saudi-based ACWA Power on Thursday announced it has completed the signing of all financing agreements for the fifth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashi ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
POLISH COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO FALL BY 7 MLN TONNES NEXT YEAR: MINISTER - REUTERS
Poland’s demand for coal is expected to fall by around 7 million tonnes next year, or more than 10% of annual hard coal production, after a d ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
PAKISTAN'S NEW 27-YEAR POWER PLAN RISKS LOCKING IN LONG-TERM OVERCAPACITY, LEAVING IMPORTED COAL AND LNG PLANTS STRANDED - IEEFA
Wind and solar, the country’s cheapest source of new generation, also overlooked
Pakistan risks locking itself into building m ...
Friday, 04 September 20
IN A DEEPENING DEBT HOLE OF $34 BILLION, INDONESIA’S PLN MUST STOP DIGGING - IEEFA
The utility has added IDR100 trillion in debt annually for the last five years
Utilities globally started changing the way they do business ye ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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