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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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