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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA KICKS AN OWN GOAL WITH AUSTRALIAN COAL - FORBES
China’s annoyance at Australia’s hardline stance on political interference and demands for an independent inquiry into the root cause o ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MINISTER - INDONESIA JAN-OCT COAL OUTPUT AT 459 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the January to October period was 459 million tonnes, the country’s energy minister told parliament on Monday.
& ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
INDIA: MORE STEPS NEEDED TO MAKE COMMERCIAL COAL MINING ATTRACTIVE TO GLOBAL PLAYERS - LIVEMINT
India concluded its first commercial coal mine auctions earlier this month. A total of 19 coal mines spread across Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odish ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.38 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 129.21 points Monday, up 0.38 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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