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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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