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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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