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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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Showing 16 to 20 news of total 6871 |
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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