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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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