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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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Showing 106 to 110 news of total 6871 |
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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