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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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