We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long term due to major delays in liquefaction projects.
US LNG exports were strong between 2017 and 2019, driven by the shale gas boom, rising demand for natural gas in Asia and higher global LNG prices. The US exported 3.9 million tonnes of LNG in 2016 which increased at a whopping 114% CAGR to 38.2 million tonnes in 2019.
The US is currently the third-largest global LNG exporter with six operational LNG export terminals aggregating 62 mtpa of liquefaction capacity and another 41 mtpa capacity under construction. Brownfiled projects such as Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron LNG and Elba Island will reach their full capacities between 2020 and 2027 and greenfield projects such as Golden Pass LNG and Calcasieu Pass will become operational during the same period.
Existing LNG production capacity in the US has been impacted by the pandemic with over 110 LNG cargoes being cancelled by Asian and European customers during June-August due to the low LNG spot price which narrowed the US-Asia and US-Europe price arbitrage. Moreover, major US LNG importers – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – have seen their LNG demand dwindling, while US-China LNG trade has not been able to pick up as some would have hoped. With projections for LNG spot prices below $5 per MMBtu over the next few years, we expect more cancellations to occur in the coming years making the US a ‘swing LNG producer.’
The ‘second wave’ of LNG liquefaction including mega-LNG projects (such as Driftwood LNG, Port Arthur LNG, Golden Pass, Calcasieu LNG, Plaquemines LNG, Magnolia LNG, Jordan Cove LNG and Rio Grande LNG) constitute over 160 mtpa of planned liquefaction capacity. These projects were initially expected to be operational by 2025, but are currently facing major trouble in securing funding and long-term supply deals required for reaching an FID. Only two projects (Golden Pass and Calcasieu Pass LNG) have attained the FID and have started construction, while over 10 major LNG liquefaction projects which were expected to reach the FID in 2020 have been delayed due to low LNG prices and weak economic growth projections.
The future for these projects looks uncertain as most of them had fixed the all-inclusive selling price for LNG at $8 per MMBtu for Asia ($2 for Henry Hub, $3 for liquefaction, $2-3 transportation) which is highly uncompetitive in the current market. Only a marginal recovery in LNG prices is projected for the next few years which further increases the woes for promoters of the planned projects in securing funding and supply deals. Meanwhile, a major competitor for US LNG, Qatar enjoys a break-even price below $2 per MMBtu as well as proximity to the Asian market. Qatar’s North Field Expansion (NFE) project’s Phase-1 (33 mtpa) and Phase-2 (16 mtpa) are also backed by the government, increasing the probability of their completion and in the process creating more trouble for the planned US projects.
The pandemic has already created severe financial woes for some US projects. For instance, a deal between Driftwood’s promoter Tellurian and India’s Petronet LNG fell through, raising doubts over the proposed 27.6 mtpa project. Although negotiations are still underway, Tellurian faces high competition from Russian and African projects. Shell has also exited the Lake Charles LNG project, increasing the uncertainty of the project for the other participants, while Magnolia LNG’s promoter LNG Ltd has been taken over by another entity after it went bankrupt, delaying the project further.
Some projects like Lake Charles and Rio Grande have gone back to the drawing board and plan to reduce trains to decrease the capex cost while others are cutting workforce and raising loans to keep their projects afloat. Most project developers are hopingfor an easing of US-China tensions and the prospect of securinga share of the rising LNG demand in China, which is projected to grow at over 10% CAGR between 2020 and 2025. However, China’s LNG importers may not be too keen on long-term supply deals with US companies given the current low prices and the uncertainty over US-China trade relations. Ties between China and Qatar are also strengthening with the latter reserving 16 LNG carrier newbuild berths at a Chinese shipyard.
Overall, project delays are expected to hurt the US deeply in the long term while other LNG producers – Qatar, Russia and Mozambique – gain from the narrowing supply-demand gap from 2023 onwards. Qatar has already reserved LNG carrier newbuilding berths at shipyards and has selected a technology partner for the NFE project while Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 is on schedule with added investments made for Arc-7 LNG carriers and large FSUs to keep the Northern Sea Route (NSR) active most of the year.
US LNG woes have had a cascading effect on the LNG shipping market, depressing charter rates. The fall in US-Asia LNG trade has negatively affected shipping demand which, along with cancellations, has increased vessel availability in the market. At present, the fall in charter rates is arrested by a rise in floating storage, but this situation is not sustainable in the long term with LNG prices remaining depressed and over 120 LNG carriers scheduled to be delivered during 2020-21.
An estimated 140 new orders for LNG carriers during 2020-23 would be left hanging if the planned US LNG projects fail to progress. The loss of orders will impact LNG shipyards which have already begun to reel under low orders (only eight vessels were ordered in 1H20). While project-linked ordering from Qatar, Russia and Mozambique will bring some respite the drying up of speculative orders will most certainly be a huge loss for the LNG shipping market as a whole.
To conclude US LNG exports will grow at a slower pace in the coming years as long-term supply deals have already been signed for the under-construction projects. However, stiff competition from other producers amid low LNG prices will impact their share in the Asian market. The fall in US-Asia trade will negatively impact shipping demand and further reduce the number of vessels required for LNG trade. Overall, we expect US LNG exports to be seasonal in the long run with Europe playing a much larger role in the future.
Source: Drewry
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
|
|
|
Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
|
| |
| |
|
