We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long term due to major delays in liquefaction projects.
US LNG exports were strong between 2017 and 2019, driven by the shale gas boom, rising demand for natural gas in Asia and higher global LNG prices. The US exported 3.9 million tonnes of LNG in 2016 which increased at a whopping 114% CAGR to 38.2 million tonnes in 2019.
The US is currently the third-largest global LNG exporter with six operational LNG export terminals aggregating 62 mtpa of liquefaction capacity and another 41 mtpa capacity under construction. Brownfiled projects such as Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron LNG and Elba Island will reach their full capacities between 2020 and 2027 and greenfield projects such as Golden Pass LNG and Calcasieu Pass will become operational during the same period.
Existing LNG production capacity in the US has been impacted by the pandemic with over 110 LNG cargoes being cancelled by Asian and European customers during June-August due to the low LNG spot price which narrowed the US-Asia and US-Europe price arbitrage. Moreover, major US LNG importers – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – have seen their LNG demand dwindling, while US-China LNG trade has not been able to pick up as some would have hoped. With projections for LNG spot prices below $5 per MMBtu over the next few years, we expect more cancellations to occur in the coming years making the US a ‘swing LNG producer.’
The ‘second wave’ of LNG liquefaction including mega-LNG projects (such as Driftwood LNG, Port Arthur LNG, Golden Pass, Calcasieu LNG, Plaquemines LNG, Magnolia LNG, Jordan Cove LNG and Rio Grande LNG) constitute over 160 mtpa of planned liquefaction capacity. These projects were initially expected to be operational by 2025, but are currently facing major trouble in securing funding and long-term supply deals required for reaching an FID. Only two projects (Golden Pass and Calcasieu Pass LNG) have attained the FID and have started construction, while over 10 major LNG liquefaction projects which were expected to reach the FID in 2020 have been delayed due to low LNG prices and weak economic growth projections.
The future for these projects looks uncertain as most of them had fixed the all-inclusive selling price for LNG at $8 per MMBtu for Asia ($2 for Henry Hub, $3 for liquefaction, $2-3 transportation) which is highly uncompetitive in the current market. Only a marginal recovery in LNG prices is projected for the next few years which further increases the woes for promoters of the planned projects in securing funding and supply deals. Meanwhile, a major competitor for US LNG, Qatar enjoys a break-even price below $2 per MMBtu as well as proximity to the Asian market. Qatar’s North Field Expansion (NFE) project’s Phase-1 (33 mtpa) and Phase-2 (16 mtpa) are also backed by the government, increasing the probability of their completion and in the process creating more trouble for the planned US projects.
The pandemic has already created severe financial woes for some US projects. For instance, a deal between Driftwood’s promoter Tellurian and India’s Petronet LNG fell through, raising doubts over the proposed 27.6 mtpa project. Although negotiations are still underway, Tellurian faces high competition from Russian and African projects. Shell has also exited the Lake Charles LNG project, increasing the uncertainty of the project for the other participants, while Magnolia LNG’s promoter LNG Ltd has been taken over by another entity after it went bankrupt, delaying the project further.
Some projects like Lake Charles and Rio Grande have gone back to the drawing board and plan to reduce trains to decrease the capex cost while others are cutting workforce and raising loans to keep their projects afloat. Most project developers are hopingfor an easing of US-China tensions and the prospect of securinga share of the rising LNG demand in China, which is projected to grow at over 10% CAGR between 2020 and 2025. However, China’s LNG importers may not be too keen on long-term supply deals with US companies given the current low prices and the uncertainty over US-China trade relations. Ties between China and Qatar are also strengthening with the latter reserving 16 LNG carrier newbuild berths at a Chinese shipyard.
Overall, project delays are expected to hurt the US deeply in the long term while other LNG producers – Qatar, Russia and Mozambique – gain from the narrowing supply-demand gap from 2023 onwards. Qatar has already reserved LNG carrier newbuilding berths at shipyards and has selected a technology partner for the NFE project while Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 is on schedule with added investments made for Arc-7 LNG carriers and large FSUs to keep the Northern Sea Route (NSR) active most of the year.
US LNG woes have had a cascading effect on the LNG shipping market, depressing charter rates. The fall in US-Asia LNG trade has negatively affected shipping demand which, along with cancellations, has increased vessel availability in the market. At present, the fall in charter rates is arrested by a rise in floating storage, but this situation is not sustainable in the long term with LNG prices remaining depressed and over 120 LNG carriers scheduled to be delivered during 2020-21.
An estimated 140 new orders for LNG carriers during 2020-23 would be left hanging if the planned US LNG projects fail to progress. The loss of orders will impact LNG shipyards which have already begun to reel under low orders (only eight vessels were ordered in 1H20). While project-linked ordering from Qatar, Russia and Mozambique will bring some respite the drying up of speculative orders will most certainly be a huge loss for the LNG shipping market as a whole.
To conclude US LNG exports will grow at a slower pace in the coming years as long-term supply deals have already been signed for the under-construction projects. However, stiff competition from other producers amid low LNG prices will impact their share in the Asian market. The fall in US-Asia trade will negatively impact shipping demand and further reduce the number of vessels required for LNG trade. Overall, we expect US LNG exports to be seasonal in the long run with Europe playing a much larger role in the future.
Source: Drewry
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
|
|
|
Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
|
| |
| |
|
