We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long term due to major delays in liquefaction projects.
US LNG exports were strong between 2017 and 2019, driven by the shale gas boom, rising demand for natural gas in Asia and higher global LNG prices. The US exported 3.9 million tonnes of LNG in 2016 which increased at a whopping 114% CAGR to 38.2 million tonnes in 2019.
The US is currently the third-largest global LNG exporter with six operational LNG export terminals aggregating 62 mtpa of liquefaction capacity and another 41 mtpa capacity under construction. Brownfiled projects such as Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron LNG and Elba Island will reach their full capacities between 2020 and 2027 and greenfield projects such as Golden Pass LNG and Calcasieu Pass will become operational during the same period.
Existing LNG production capacity in the US has been impacted by the pandemic with over 110 LNG cargoes being cancelled by Asian and European customers during June-August due to the low LNG spot price which narrowed the US-Asia and US-Europe price arbitrage. Moreover, major US LNG importers – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – have seen their LNG demand dwindling, while US-China LNG trade has not been able to pick up as some would have hoped. With projections for LNG spot prices below $5 per MMBtu over the next few years, we expect more cancellations to occur in the coming years making the US a ‘swing LNG producer.’
The ‘second wave’ of LNG liquefaction including mega-LNG projects (such as Driftwood LNG, Port Arthur LNG, Golden Pass, Calcasieu LNG, Plaquemines LNG, Magnolia LNG, Jordan Cove LNG and Rio Grande LNG) constitute over 160 mtpa of planned liquefaction capacity. These projects were initially expected to be operational by 2025, but are currently facing major trouble in securing funding and long-term supply deals required for reaching an FID. Only two projects (Golden Pass and Calcasieu Pass LNG) have attained the FID and have started construction, while over 10 major LNG liquefaction projects which were expected to reach the FID in 2020 have been delayed due to low LNG prices and weak economic growth projections.
The future for these projects looks uncertain as most of them had fixed the all-inclusive selling price for LNG at $8 per MMBtu for Asia ($2 for Henry Hub, $3 for liquefaction, $2-3 transportation) which is highly uncompetitive in the current market. Only a marginal recovery in LNG prices is projected for the next few years which further increases the woes for promoters of the planned projects in securing funding and supply deals. Meanwhile, a major competitor for US LNG, Qatar enjoys a break-even price below $2 per MMBtu as well as proximity to the Asian market. Qatar’s North Field Expansion (NFE) project’s Phase-1 (33 mtpa) and Phase-2 (16 mtpa) are also backed by the government, increasing the probability of their completion and in the process creating more trouble for the planned US projects.
The pandemic has already created severe financial woes for some US projects. For instance, a deal between Driftwood’s promoter Tellurian and India’s Petronet LNG fell through, raising doubts over the proposed 27.6 mtpa project. Although negotiations are still underway, Tellurian faces high competition from Russian and African projects. Shell has also exited the Lake Charles LNG project, increasing the uncertainty of the project for the other participants, while Magnolia LNG’s promoter LNG Ltd has been taken over by another entity after it went bankrupt, delaying the project further.
Some projects like Lake Charles and Rio Grande have gone back to the drawing board and plan to reduce trains to decrease the capex cost while others are cutting workforce and raising loans to keep their projects afloat. Most project developers are hopingfor an easing of US-China tensions and the prospect of securinga share of the rising LNG demand in China, which is projected to grow at over 10% CAGR between 2020 and 2025. However, China’s LNG importers may not be too keen on long-term supply deals with US companies given the current low prices and the uncertainty over US-China trade relations. Ties between China and Qatar are also strengthening with the latter reserving 16 LNG carrier newbuild berths at a Chinese shipyard.
Overall, project delays are expected to hurt the US deeply in the long term while other LNG producers – Qatar, Russia and Mozambique – gain from the narrowing supply-demand gap from 2023 onwards. Qatar has already reserved LNG carrier newbuilding berths at shipyards and has selected a technology partner for the NFE project while Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 is on schedule with added investments made for Arc-7 LNG carriers and large FSUs to keep the Northern Sea Route (NSR) active most of the year.
US LNG woes have had a cascading effect on the LNG shipping market, depressing charter rates. The fall in US-Asia LNG trade has negatively affected shipping demand which, along with cancellations, has increased vessel availability in the market. At present, the fall in charter rates is arrested by a rise in floating storage, but this situation is not sustainable in the long term with LNG prices remaining depressed and over 120 LNG carriers scheduled to be delivered during 2020-21.
An estimated 140 new orders for LNG carriers during 2020-23 would be left hanging if the planned US LNG projects fail to progress. The loss of orders will impact LNG shipyards which have already begun to reel under low orders (only eight vessels were ordered in 1H20). While project-linked ordering from Qatar, Russia and Mozambique will bring some respite the drying up of speculative orders will most certainly be a huge loss for the LNG shipping market as a whole.
To conclude US LNG exports will grow at a slower pace in the coming years as long-term supply deals have already been signed for the under-construction projects. However, stiff competition from other producers amid low LNG prices will impact their share in the Asian market. The fall in US-Asia trade will negatively impact shipping demand and further reduce the number of vessels required for LNG trade. Overall, we expect US LNG exports to be seasonal in the long run with Europe playing a much larger role in the future.
Source: Drewry
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 09 June 20
INDIA: COAL IMPORT DROPS BY 20% TO NEARLY 19 MILLION TONNES IN MAY, SAYS REPORT - HINDUSTAN TIMES
The country’s coal import dropped by 20 per cent to 18.93 million tonnes (MT) last month, industry data showed.
The government ...
Monday, 08 June 20
WOOD MACKENZIE: THE INDISPENSABLE OPEC+
Rumours of “the death of OPEC” have been circulating for almost as long as the organisation has existed. Just three years after the car ...
Monday, 08 June 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FALL NEARLY 20% IN MAY EVEN AS DEMAND RISES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports in May fell nearly 20% compared with a year earlier even as demand recovered at power plants and industrial users, custo ...
Monday, 08 June 20
JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HIT US$ 52.98 A TON, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Sunday, 07 June 20
A SCRUBBER FITTED 61,000 ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES TRIP VIA SOUTH AFRICA REDELIVERY VIETNAM AT $9,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The small flicker of hope at the beginning of this week has kindled a small fire under the Capesize market. At a paltry $3369 from the ...
|
|
|
Showing 921 to 925 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
