We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long term due to major delays in liquefaction projects.
US LNG exports were strong between 2017 and 2019, driven by the shale gas boom, rising demand for natural gas in Asia and higher global LNG prices. The US exported 3.9 million tonnes of LNG in 2016 which increased at a whopping 114% CAGR to 38.2 million tonnes in 2019.
The US is currently the third-largest global LNG exporter with six operational LNG export terminals aggregating 62 mtpa of liquefaction capacity and another 41 mtpa capacity under construction. Brownfiled projects such as Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron LNG and Elba Island will reach their full capacities between 2020 and 2027 and greenfield projects such as Golden Pass LNG and Calcasieu Pass will become operational during the same period.
Existing LNG production capacity in the US has been impacted by the pandemic with over 110 LNG cargoes being cancelled by Asian and European customers during June-August due to the low LNG spot price which narrowed the US-Asia and US-Europe price arbitrage. Moreover, major US LNG importers – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – have seen their LNG demand dwindling, while US-China LNG trade has not been able to pick up as some would have hoped. With projections for LNG spot prices below $5 per MMBtu over the next few years, we expect more cancellations to occur in the coming years making the US a ‘swing LNG producer.’
The ‘second wave’ of LNG liquefaction including mega-LNG projects (such as Driftwood LNG, Port Arthur LNG, Golden Pass, Calcasieu LNG, Plaquemines LNG, Magnolia LNG, Jordan Cove LNG and Rio Grande LNG) constitute over 160 mtpa of planned liquefaction capacity. These projects were initially expected to be operational by 2025, but are currently facing major trouble in securing funding and long-term supply deals required for reaching an FID. Only two projects (Golden Pass and Calcasieu Pass LNG) have attained the FID and have started construction, while over 10 major LNG liquefaction projects which were expected to reach the FID in 2020 have been delayed due to low LNG prices and weak economic growth projections.
The future for these projects looks uncertain as most of them had fixed the all-inclusive selling price for LNG at $8 per MMBtu for Asia ($2 for Henry Hub, $3 for liquefaction, $2-3 transportation) which is highly uncompetitive in the current market. Only a marginal recovery in LNG prices is projected for the next few years which further increases the woes for promoters of the planned projects in securing funding and supply deals. Meanwhile, a major competitor for US LNG, Qatar enjoys a break-even price below $2 per MMBtu as well as proximity to the Asian market. Qatar’s North Field Expansion (NFE) project’s Phase-1 (33 mtpa) and Phase-2 (16 mtpa) are also backed by the government, increasing the probability of their completion and in the process creating more trouble for the planned US projects.
The pandemic has already created severe financial woes for some US projects. For instance, a deal between Driftwood’s promoter Tellurian and India’s Petronet LNG fell through, raising doubts over the proposed 27.6 mtpa project. Although negotiations are still underway, Tellurian faces high competition from Russian and African projects. Shell has also exited the Lake Charles LNG project, increasing the uncertainty of the project for the other participants, while Magnolia LNG’s promoter LNG Ltd has been taken over by another entity after it went bankrupt, delaying the project further.
Some projects like Lake Charles and Rio Grande have gone back to the drawing board and plan to reduce trains to decrease the capex cost while others are cutting workforce and raising loans to keep their projects afloat. Most project developers are hopingfor an easing of US-China tensions and the prospect of securinga share of the rising LNG demand in China, which is projected to grow at over 10% CAGR between 2020 and 2025. However, China’s LNG importers may not be too keen on long-term supply deals with US companies given the current low prices and the uncertainty over US-China trade relations. Ties between China and Qatar are also strengthening with the latter reserving 16 LNG carrier newbuild berths at a Chinese shipyard.
Overall, project delays are expected to hurt the US deeply in the long term while other LNG producers – Qatar, Russia and Mozambique – gain from the narrowing supply-demand gap from 2023 onwards. Qatar has already reserved LNG carrier newbuilding berths at shipyards and has selected a technology partner for the NFE project while Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 is on schedule with added investments made for Arc-7 LNG carriers and large FSUs to keep the Northern Sea Route (NSR) active most of the year.
US LNG woes have had a cascading effect on the LNG shipping market, depressing charter rates. The fall in US-Asia LNG trade has negatively affected shipping demand which, along with cancellations, has increased vessel availability in the market. At present, the fall in charter rates is arrested by a rise in floating storage, but this situation is not sustainable in the long term with LNG prices remaining depressed and over 120 LNG carriers scheduled to be delivered during 2020-21.
An estimated 140 new orders for LNG carriers during 2020-23 would be left hanging if the planned US LNG projects fail to progress. The loss of orders will impact LNG shipyards which have already begun to reel under low orders (only eight vessels were ordered in 1H20). While project-linked ordering from Qatar, Russia and Mozambique will bring some respite the drying up of speculative orders will most certainly be a huge loss for the LNG shipping market as a whole.
To conclude US LNG exports will grow at a slower pace in the coming years as long-term supply deals have already been signed for the under-construction projects. However, stiff competition from other producers amid low LNG prices will impact their share in the Asian market. The fall in US-Asia trade will negatively impact shipping demand and further reduce the number of vessels required for LNG trade. Overall, we expect US LNG exports to be seasonal in the long run with Europe playing a much larger role in the future.
Source: Drewry
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 09 June 20
BUNKER SUPPLY CONTRACTS - KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE BUYER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Regardless of whether a buyer purchases fuel directly from physical suppliers or via brokers or traders and whether sale ...
|
|
|
Showing 916 to 920 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
|
| |
| |
|
