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Thursday, 29 October 09
CURRENCIES, ASIA DEMAND TO LIFT EUROPE COAL PRICE
 Supportive currency movements and strong Asian demand mean the price of coal delivered into Europe is poised to rise more than 30 percent to above $100 a tonne by mid-2010. Coal prices fell sharply in September last year from historical highs above $200 a tonne, delivered Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (DES ARA), mostly on fears of a deep and protraced global depression. This year they have remained around $65-$75. Now they are seen likely to rise as they follow gains in "coal currencies" such as the Australian dollar, South African rand and Colombian peso against the U.S. dollar, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch's latest Global Energy Weekly report.
Producers' need to protect margins will compel them to seek dollar-denominated sales prices that fully reflect their costs. This will help push coal prices higher. The coal market will rebalance firmly in 2010 primarily due to demand growth in Asia, which will outstrip demand in the West. The current oversupply will be soaked up very quickly, the Bank of America report says.
Even the most doggedly bearish European utilities, traders and coal producers have in the past two weeks stopped expecting a fall to below $60.00 for DES ARA prices. "The short answer is yes, we expect the worst to be over and prices to increase, even if progressively, going forward," said Emmanuel Fages, Carbon and Coal Analyst at Societe Generale. He said that in the very short-term, however, there was good availability of supply in the thermal coal market. SocGen has lowered its short-term forcasts for cost, insurance and freight prices in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (CIF ARA) to $73.00 per tonne in the fourth quarter from $82.00 and to $65.00 per tonne for South African Richards Bay coal from $72.00.
In its latest Commodities Review SocGen says coal prices will not fall now but any rise will be limited in the short term due to high stockpiles in Europe and falling Chinese imports. International Energy Agency coal analyst Brian Ricketts said there was even room for coal to ease before rising. "It's not a bottom for prices, it's a plateau which has been reached. There is further for coal to fall," Ricketts said. "If you're optimistic, then the current plateau is a starting point from which prices can rise," he added. One producer source said the direction for European prices now was up. "We really do think European prices will move back above $100 a tonne by June. Prices have hit the bottom and will start to slowly move higher from now," the source said A major European utility source said: "If you look at supply for next year, there will still be tightness and strong Asian demand. It looks very likely that Europe could be under-supplied."
SWING PRODUCERS
South Africa and Russia have acted as swing producers by diverting substantial tonnage to Asia from Europe rather than cutting output. They are likely to continue to do so next year even when European demand is expected to return to normal. At least 23 million tonnes of South African and Russian exports were diverted to India and China from Europe this year. European utilities next year will have to compete with Asian end-users and pay higher prices to secure coal, producers said. Rail capacity constraints mean South African exports for 2010 may recover only slightly from this year's drop to 60 million tonnes out of 80 million tonnes total export capacity. Exports from Russia and Colombia, the two other key suppliers to Europe, stabilised at around 63 million tonnes and are unlikely to rise next year.
If European demand returns to normal by mid-2010 -- it is picking up already in France and Germany -- and exports continue to swing towards Asia, prices must rise, analysts, producers and consumers say. Nobody is predicting a return to 2008's record prices but delivered Europe levels of $100 and free-on-board South Africa, Russia and Australia's Newcastle prices of $70.00-80.00 would allow all producers to sell above their cash costs.
Sourced from Reuters
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Wednesday, 14 October 09
SA'S COAL OUTPUT LIKELY TO RISE BY 2011, BOOSTED BY WATERBERG MINES
Mining weekly reported that, South Africa's coal production will struggle to meet demand over the next few years, but coal production could likely ...
Tuesday, 13 October 09
INDONESIA'S BAYAN SEES 2010 COAL OUTPUT UP 42 PCT
Reuters reported that, Indonesian coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN.JK) said on Tuesday it expects its coal output to increase by 42 percent i ...
Tuesday, 13 October 09
STRAITS ASIA UPBEAT ON MEETING 2009 COAL OUTPUT
Reuters reported that, Singapore-listed coal miner Straits Asia is still optimistic about meeting its coal output target of 9 million tonnes this ye ...
Tuesday, 13 October 09
THERMAL COAL DEMAND IN CHINA DRIVES PRICE INCREASES
Metal Miner reported that, Thermal coal prices have been falling this year; contrary to many other commodities, both metals and energy that hit bott ...
Tuesday, 13 October 09
JSW ENERGY SCOUTING FOR PARTNERS, ACQUISITIONS
Business-Standard reported that, JSW Energy is planning to become an integrated power company by bringing in a partner for its transmission business ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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