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Thursday, 29 October 09
CURRENCIES, ASIA DEMAND TO LIFT EUROPE COAL PRICE
Supportive currency movements and strong Asian demand mean the price of coal delivered into Europe is poised to rise more than 30 percent to above $100 a tonne by mid-2010. Coal prices fell sharply in September last year from historical highs above $200 a tonne, delivered Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (DES ARA), mostly on fears of a deep and protraced global depression. This year they have remained around $65-$75. Now they are seen likely to rise as they follow gains in "coal currencies" such as the Australian dollar, South African rand and Colombian peso against the U.S. dollar, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch's latest Global Energy Weekly report.
Producers' need to protect margins will compel them to seek dollar-denominated sales prices that fully reflect their costs. This will help push coal prices higher. The coal market will rebalance firmly in 2010 primarily due to demand growth in Asia, which will outstrip demand in the West. The current oversupply will be soaked up very quickly, the Bank of America report says.
Even the most doggedly bearish European utilities, traders and coal producers have in the past two weeks stopped expecting a fall to below $60.00 for DES ARA prices. "The short answer is yes, we expect the worst to be over and prices to increase, even if progressively, going forward," said Emmanuel Fages, Carbon and Coal Analyst at Societe Generale. He said that in the very short-term, however, there was good availability of supply in the thermal coal market. SocGen has lowered its short-term forcasts for cost, insurance and freight prices in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (CIF ARA) to $73.00 per tonne in the fourth quarter from $82.00 and to $65.00 per tonne for South African Richards Bay coal from $72.00.
In its latest Commodities Review SocGen says coal prices will not fall now but any rise will be limited in the short term due to high stockpiles in Europe and falling Chinese imports. International Energy Agency coal analyst Brian Ricketts said there was even room for coal to ease before rising. "It's not a bottom for prices, it's a plateau which has been reached. There is further for coal to fall," Ricketts said. "If you're optimistic, then the current plateau is a starting point from which prices can rise," he added. One producer source said the direction for European prices now was up. "We really do think European prices will move back above $100 a tonne by June. Prices have hit the bottom and will start to slowly move higher from now," the source said A major European utility source said: "If you look at supply for next year, there will still be tightness and strong Asian demand. It looks very likely that Europe could be under-supplied."
SWING PRODUCERS
South Africa and Russia have acted as swing producers by diverting substantial tonnage to Asia from Europe rather than cutting output. They are likely to continue to do so next year even when European demand is expected to return to normal. At least 23 million tonnes of South African and Russian exports were diverted to India and China from Europe this year. European utilities next year will have to compete with Asian end-users and pay higher prices to secure coal, producers said. Rail capacity constraints mean South African exports for 2010 may recover only slightly from this year's drop to 60 million tonnes out of 80 million tonnes total export capacity. Exports from Russia and Colombia, the two other key suppliers to Europe, stabilised at around 63 million tonnes and are unlikely to rise next year.
If European demand returns to normal by mid-2010 -- it is picking up already in France and Germany -- and exports continue to swing towards Asia, prices must rise, analysts, producers and consumers say. Nobody is predicting a return to 2008's record prices but delivered Europe levels of $100 and free-on-board South Africa, Russia and Australia's Newcastle prices of $70.00-80.00 would allow all producers to sell above their cash costs.
Sourced from Reuters
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Tuesday, 20 October 09
COAL PRICES TO SURGE IN 2010 DESPITE AMPLE SUPPLY
Commodity Online reported that, Coal prices are indeed destined to go higher as they follow the rise of ‘coal currencies’ such as Austra ...
Tuesday, 20 October 09
INDIA MAY CUT STAKE IN NTPC BY DECEMBER, POWER SECRETARY SAYS
Bloomberg reported that, India’s government may sell a 5 percent stake in NTPC Ltd., the country’s biggest power producer, as early as D ...
Monday, 19 October 09
COAL PRICE UP AGAIN - RICHARDS BAY TERMINAL
Export prices rose 45 cents, or 0.7%, to an average of 64.05 a metric ton in the week ended Oct. 16, according to McCloskey Group.
The week was & ...
Monday, 19 October 09
COAL MINISTRY SEEKS EXPLANATION FROM AP GENCO
The Hindu Business reported that, the Coal Ministry has asked the Power Generation Corporation of Andhra Pradesh (AP Genco) to explain why there was ...
Monday, 19 October 09
CEMENT UNLIKELY TO COST MORE DESPITE COAL PRICE HIKE
Business-Standard reported that, Cement manufacturers will not immediately hike prices of the construction material, despite a surge in their input ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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