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Thursday, 29 October 09
CURRENCIES, ASIA DEMAND TO LIFT EUROPE COAL PRICE
 Supportive currency movements and strong Asian demand mean the price of coal delivered into Europe is poised to rise more than 30 percent to above $100 a tonne by mid-2010. Coal prices fell sharply in September last year from historical highs above $200 a tonne, delivered Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (DES ARA), mostly on fears of a deep and protraced global depression. This year they have remained around $65-$75. Now they are seen likely to rise as they follow gains in "coal currencies" such as the Australian dollar, South African rand and Colombian peso against the U.S. dollar, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch's latest Global Energy Weekly report.
Producers' need to protect margins will compel them to seek dollar-denominated sales prices that fully reflect their costs. This will help push coal prices higher. The coal market will rebalance firmly in 2010 primarily due to demand growth in Asia, which will outstrip demand in the West. The current oversupply will be soaked up very quickly, the Bank of America report says.
Even the most doggedly bearish European utilities, traders and coal producers have in the past two weeks stopped expecting a fall to below $60.00 for DES ARA prices. "The short answer is yes, we expect the worst to be over and prices to increase, even if progressively, going forward," said Emmanuel Fages, Carbon and Coal Analyst at Societe Generale. He said that in the very short-term, however, there was good availability of supply in the thermal coal market. SocGen has lowered its short-term forcasts for cost, insurance and freight prices in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (CIF ARA) to $73.00 per tonne in the fourth quarter from $82.00 and to $65.00 per tonne for South African Richards Bay coal from $72.00.
In its latest Commodities Review SocGen says coal prices will not fall now but any rise will be limited in the short term due to high stockpiles in Europe and falling Chinese imports. International Energy Agency coal analyst Brian Ricketts said there was even room for coal to ease before rising. "It's not a bottom for prices, it's a plateau which has been reached. There is further for coal to fall," Ricketts said. "If you're optimistic, then the current plateau is a starting point from which prices can rise," he added. One producer source said the direction for European prices now was up. "We really do think European prices will move back above $100 a tonne by June. Prices have hit the bottom and will start to slowly move higher from now," the source said A major European utility source said: "If you look at supply for next year, there will still be tightness and strong Asian demand. It looks very likely that Europe could be under-supplied."
SWING PRODUCERS
South Africa and Russia have acted as swing producers by diverting substantial tonnage to Asia from Europe rather than cutting output. They are likely to continue to do so next year even when European demand is expected to return to normal. At least 23 million tonnes of South African and Russian exports were diverted to India and China from Europe this year. European utilities next year will have to compete with Asian end-users and pay higher prices to secure coal, producers said. Rail capacity constraints mean South African exports for 2010 may recover only slightly from this year's drop to 60 million tonnes out of 80 million tonnes total export capacity. Exports from Russia and Colombia, the two other key suppliers to Europe, stabilised at around 63 million tonnes and are unlikely to rise next year.
If European demand returns to normal by mid-2010 -- it is picking up already in France and Germany -- and exports continue to swing towards Asia, prices must rise, analysts, producers and consumers say. Nobody is predicting a return to 2008's record prices but delivered Europe levels of $100 and free-on-board South Africa, Russia and Australia's Newcastle prices of $70.00-80.00 would allow all producers to sell above their cash costs.
Sourced from Reuters
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Thursday, 22 October 09
2ND UNITED INDONESIA CABINET UNVEILED
The Jakarta Post reported that, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono announced his second United Indonesia Cabinet on Wednesday night, comprising 34 m ...
Thursday, 22 October 09
PEABODY SET TO TAP ASIAN DEMAND FOR COAL
The Australian reported that, US coal giant Peabody Energy plans to double its Queensland and NSW coal exports in the next five years, as it looks t ...
Wednesday, 21 October 09
INDONESIA POWER FIRM SEEKS TO DEFER COAL SUPPLIES
Reuters reported that, Indonesia's state power firm is negotiating with two coal producers, including a unit of PT Bumi Resources Tbk, to defer a c ...
Wednesday, 21 October 09
MINING REGULATION GENERATES CONFUSION IN INDONESIA
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Mining industry representatives said on Friday they were confused by a recently issued regulation restricting the w ...
Wednesday, 21 October 09
LAW ACCOMMODATES NATIONAL AND INVESTOR INTERESTS
COALspot.com (Indonesia): According to ESDM, the government has issued five Lawson the energy and mineral resources sector. These laws will prioriti ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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