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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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