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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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